3 December 14:00-15:30 CET

Can we trust the warning signs of an approaching tipping point?

Scientists are increasingly using resilience indicators to look for early warning signals of critical change in the Earth system. But those signals are only as reliable as the data behind them.

Satellite products can tell different stories. Observations may be noisy, seasonal or incomplete. Missing values and outliers can distort the very indicators researchers use to detect declining resilience.

In this webinar, researchers will explore what happens when real-world data meet tipping point science. From monitoring the resilience of tropical forests from space to understanding how gaps, noise and irregular observations affect critical slowing down signals, the talks will examine how data choices can shape what we think we know about approaching change.

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP’s Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a discussion on how to separate meaningful warning signals from misleading ones, and what more reliable approaches could mean for detecting tipping points before they are crossed.

Agenda

  • Lana Blaschke (Technical University of Munich): The agony of choice: data and metrics to reliably monitor tropical forest resilience
  • Taylor Smith, (University of Potsdam):  Moving Targets: Dealing with Irregular, Seasonal, and Noisy Data
  • Teng Liu, (Technical University of Munich):  When resilience indicators disagree: How data gaps and outliers distort Critical-Slowing-Down signals
  • Followed by a moderated discussion with Joshua Buxton (Exeter University)

Back to series overview.

A recording of the webinar will be available afterwards.

Speakers

Lana Blaschke
Technical University of Munich

Lana Blaschke’s main research interest is the stability of tropical forests under climate change. She uses remote sensing as a key source of spatiotemporal data to monitor ecosystem stability and assess changes in resilience using estimators based on dynamical systems theory.Her work focuses on improving the robustness of resilience estimates through two main approaches: developing spatial resilience estimators that make use of the dimensionality of remote sensing data, and identifying suitable combinations of datasets and resilience estimators.

She is part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative project SIRENE, where she contributes to advancing resilience monitoring of terrestrial vegetation ecosystems using remote sensing data and to quantifying uncertainties within these approaches.

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Taylor Smith
University of Potsdam

Taylor Smith’s research focuses on monitoring global vegetation systems, quantifying the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change, and understanding changes in the Earth system through data-driven approaches. His work combines high-performance computing, remote sensing, and statistical methods to investigate ecosystem stability, climate impacts, and feedback processes.

He is a member of the Remote Sensing and Earth-Surface Processes team at the University of Potsdam, where his research and teaching include quantitative data analysis and the analysis of large remotely sensed datasets.

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Teng Liu
Technical University of Munich

Teng Liu’s research focuses on uncovering universal behaviors in complex systems and understanding how these systems respond to changing control parameters, including phase transitions in physical systems and abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

His work explores climate tipping points and teleconnections in the Earth system, critical phenomena in physics, and the dynamics of complex systems near criticality.

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Joshua Buxton
University of Exeter

Joshua Buxton is a Research Fellow at the Global Systems Institute, where he works on tipping points, system resilience, and intersecting global crises. His research draws on remote sensing and resilience analysis to study ecosystem change, early warning signals, and the dynamics of tipping points.

He was a core member of the team behind the Global Tipping Points Report 2023, serving as a section lead on the impacts of climate tipping points and a chapter lead on early warning signals for climate and positive tipping points. He also works with the Earth Commission on quantifying safe and just Earth system boundaries and is a member of Professor Tim Lenton’s Resilience and Tipping Points research group.

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community and develop a research agenda.

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.